Zimbabwe 2002: IDASA Survey: Public opinion and the election

Updated 2002

This discussion is based on the 1999 IDASA report: "Democracy and national governance in Zimbabwe: A country survey report". The main conclusions from the 1999 IDASA Afrobarometer survey have recently been verified by a recent series of opinion-leader focus groups conducted by IDASA in partnership with Mass Public Opinion Institute of Zimbabwe.

This new study suggests that the political mood in the country has deteriorated significantly since the 1999 study. There was consensus among participants in the focus groups that there is a severe crisis of governance in Zimbabwe.

Conclusions

The 1999 Afrobarometer results demonstrate that Zimbabwe's political crisis did not emerge overnight. Even prior to the constitutional referendum, Zimbabweans expressed grave concerns about their political system, even as they expressed high levels of demand for democracy.

Even if there is a change in government leadership, Zimbabwe's entire political framework requires a thorough overhaul in order to restore public trust in government.

  • Given the fact that 50% indicated that the Constitution did not express the values and aspirations of the Zimbabwean people, the Constitution should go through a process of national debate and reform.
  • Reforming the electoral process and particularly the role of the Electoral Supervisory Commission (ESC) is also necessary given the low level of trust in the ESC.
  • The rule of law and the unfettered right of political expression will need to be restored swiftly. Even in 1999, a majority of Zimbabweans felt that they were not able to freely speak their minds about politics (60% agreed that: "In this country, you must be very careful of what you say and do with regard to politics").
  • Government must be seen to attempt to address the real concerns of citizens. When asked in 1999 to list the three most important problems that government must address, three quarters (74%) mentioned the economy, 37% cited job creation, and 18% pointed to health care. Less than 1% mentioned land or land reform. In fact, an overwhelming 94% were dissatisfied with the state of the economy in 1999, and 84% predicted that things would deteriorate even further. It is crucial that the government develop realistic policies to improve the socio-economic conditions of Zimbabwe's citizens.
  • Parliament and local government need to be reformed in order to better fulfil their role as places where voters can be represented and be provided with a meaningful opportunity to participate in government.
  • Finally, government needs to be seen to make serious attempts to end official-level corruption.

If the Zimbabwean government is able to transform its institutions there is certainly a democratic culture amongst the citizenry that would support, sustain and consolidate these reforms. Zimbabwean citizens display a very strong commitment to democracy.

However, if this election is simply about changing the faces of who governs the country, without seriously addressing the larger systemic problems, any ensuing public goodwill may quickly give way to disillusionment and cynicism, not only with government but with the very process of democracy.

Reference

IDASA 1999, Democracy and national governance in Zimbabwe: A country survey report.