Zimbabwe before and after the June 2000 elections: an assessment (continued)

Although Zimbabwe has no post-independence tradition of military involvement in government, the appointment of senior officers to run such important state agencies as the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO) and the troubled National Oil Company of Zimbabwe (NOCZIM) has worried many observers. At the same time, the intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) seems to have increased linkages between civilian investors, the military and government - a fertile breeding ground for large-scale corruption. The Zimbabwean army's commercial operations in the DRC has led to allegations that the Zimbabwe military had been dealing illegally in diamonds, gold and, even, uranium in the central Congolese city of Mbuji-Mayi. Nearly a quarter - 11 000 personnel - of Zimbabwe's 35 000-strong army is currently deployed in the DRC. Drawn from throughout the country, and with a British-trained officer corps, the army is not prone to factionalism; nor is it overtly party-political. However, the elite, 9 000-strong presidential guard is something else entirely. This is one force on which Mugabe could certainly rely; but alone it cannot challenge for state power. In any event, without at least the acquiescence of South Africa, it is unlikely that any force in Zimbabwe could successfully launch, let alone sustain, a coup. Short of a complete breakdown in civil order, therefore, the army is likely to leave state power to the civilians. But under government orders, soldiers might yet be called out to police a state of emergency as an increasingly desperate ZANU PF tries to cling to power.

Run-Up to, and Results of, the June 2000 Parliamentary Elections

Although parliamentary elections were originally scheduled for March 2000, it had to be delayed to June, ostensibly to give the government time to update the electoral roll. Independent observers had criticized the voters' roll as susceptible to fraud and highly inaccurate, with as many as 25 % of names being incorrect (those of deceased voters or multiple entries), while a further 30% of voters had moved constituencies. United Nations election experts also visited Zimbabwe and confirmed that free and fair elections could not take place unless the voters' roll was substantially updated. In past elections, the ruling ZANU PF party had been known to use inaccurate voters' rolls to rig the polls and in so doing eliminate opponents. White Zimbabweans holding British passports (dual Zimbabwean and British nationality) had been disenfranchised; and all Zimbabweans living abroad (an estimated 1mn, mainly in South Africa) were not allowed to vote as the government had decided that it was "too expensive" to facilitate voter registration abroad - an easy way of freezing possible opposition voters out of the electoral system à la the June 1999 elections in South Africa. Already there had been indications of systematic rigging of the voters' roll and "gerrymandering" of constituency boundaries. Given that donor countries would not be willing to fund what was seen as an imperfect vote, there was a strong prospect that the democratic legitimacy of the next government would be compromised, also complicating the resumption of external assistance.

The newly established MDC decided to contest the parliamentary elections and put up candidates in all areas of the country. The party had already moved to establish branches throughout Zimbabwe and was benefiting from its association with the powerful Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) that put its organizational structures at the disposal of the party. The MDC campaigned on a platform highlighting the country's financial mismanagement and lack of transparency; its leader, former trade unionist Morgan Tsvangirai, called for an end to government-sponsored violence and racist hate-speech, a sensible economic programme, open and equitable land reform to help Zimbabwe's rural poor, and free and fair elections. Other parties who contested the elections were the resurgent Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU), based on the party of late vice-president Joshua Nkomo, which has a natural constituency among the aggrieved Ndebele minority in Matabeleland; the Zimbabwe Union of Democrats (ZUD), led by Margaret Dongo, one of only three opposition members in the former parliament; the Zimbabwe African National Union Ndonga (ZANU Ndonga) of Ndabaningi Sithole; the Zimbabwe Unity Movement (ZUM); the Forum Party of Zimbabwe (FPZ); the Democratic Party (a split from ZUM); the Front for Popular Democracy (FPD); and the recently launched United Democratic Front (UDF) of Lupi Mushayakarara, former Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith, and Bishop Abel Muzorewa. None of the opposition parties, however, agreed to an electoral pact in order to co-ordinate where they would field candidates. In the end, a total of 566 parliamentary candidates, 92 of them independents, were to contest the elections.