Zambia: Presidency of Chiluba (1991-2001)

Updated January 2006

The new President of the new multi-party democracy, Fredrick Chiluba, was a trade unionist who had been detained in 1981. The MMD which had sponsored his candidacy, despite its massive electoral mandate, was little more than a coalition of a range of different opposition groups bound together by the common agenda of establishing multi-party democracy in Zambia and removing Kaunda and UNIP from government. It had been brought to power by a massive economic crisis that had emerged in the mid-seventies and which the previous government had failed to resolve satisfactorily. It had been elected on a platform of transparent, accountable and democratic governance and economic reform (Holmes 2004, Thurlow & Wobst 2004). To implement its economic plank, in the words of Holms (2004), "It abolished foreign exchange controls, passed new investment laws, set up a stock exchange, and embarked on a privatisation programme which at one point was dubbed by the World Bank as the best on the continent".

A key part of the reform programme was to reduce the massive state budget deficits which dragged Zambia ever deeper into the cycle of increasing debt and rising costs of debt servicing. To this end controlling bodies such as marketing boards were abolished and parastatal corporations either closed or rationalized and restructured in preparation for privatization. Food subsidies were abolished and prices of food and key commodities that had been government administrated were left to the market. This led on the one hand to higher prices for key goods, especially of food, and to greater unemployment on the other, thus deepening rather than reducing general misery. To discipline government spending current expenditure would only be made from collected revenues. Measures to increase revenue did not succeed and the government did not tackle the problem of the bloated civil service, but rather reduced social and investment spending leading to a steady decline in health care and education through the 90's (Hansungule et al 1998, Mwanawina & Mulungushi 2002, Thurlow & Wobst 2004).

Further measures to increase international competitiveness were successfully implemented by 1996, through eliminating quotas and reducing tariffs on imports, while the currency was permitted to depreciate thus discouraging imports and encouraging exports. This led to the failure of inflexible state enterprises and a loss of manufacturing sector jobs. Inflation, which had reached an average of 127% from 1090-1993 was reduced to 25% by 1995, a level it maintained until the millennium (Thurlow & Wobst 2004). Begun in 1994, privatisation proceeded rapidly, for according to Thurlow & Wobst (2004) "By 1997 over 80 percent of state enterprises had either been dissolved or sold to the private sector". The more difficult problem of privatizing the mines (which were losing some $1 million a day) was only begun after the 1996 election, but the process was hampered by fluctuations in the price of copper and mired in political controversy and only completed in March 2000 (Mtembu-Salter 2002, Thurlow & Wobst 2004).

Chiluba's first term of office was marked by increasing conflict within the loose coalition that formed the ruling party and between MMD and the opposition UNIP. In late 1991 members of UNIP were accused by the government of conspiring to kill members of the government, but were cleared by an independent investigation. Dissenters in the ruling party formed the Caucus for National Unity (CNU) which criticized the lack of ethnic inclusiveness in public appointments, sought a constitutional review to curtail the power of the presidency and criticized the way in which structural adjustments were undertaken in view of the hardships they unleashed; in 1992 they registered as a political party. In July 1992 a break away group formed the United Democratic Party (UDP), unhappy with the failure of the government to deal with corruption in its ranks. In 1993 a brief state of emergency was declared and 15 members of UNIP were arrested for conspiring to overthrow the government (Mtembu-Salter 2002).

Further accusations of corruption against senior party and government members in 1993 were supplemented with charges of drug trafficking, leading to a new breakaway of senior members to form the National Party. Corruption allegations and conflict in the government led to the resignation of the several ministers and Vice-President Levy Mwanawasa from the government and accusations of ethnic favouritism resurfaced within the MMD. Meanwhile the government continued to harass Kaunda, placing him under surveillance and alleging that he was inciting revolt, while he in turn urged a campaign of civil disobedience against the government. In 1996 a controversial amendment was passed designed to exclude Kaunda and his deputy from standing for election later that year. Donors responded by reducing aid, while the elections were boycotted by UNIP and five other parties that had allied with it over the previous five years. On a poll of 58.6%, and in an election fraught with administrative problems and allegations of abuse of the state media by the MMD, the MMD won 131 of the seats, independents 10 and the remaining 9 went to three small parties. Chiluba easily retained the presidency with 72.5% of the vote (Mtembu-Salter 2002, Lodge et al 2002).

The campaign of civil disobedience launched by the opposition in protest at the 1976 elections continued throughout 1997. That year also exposed a growing rift between the government and the trade unions over wage rises for public servants which escalated into a general strike in March 1998. A coup attempt in October 1997 was blamed by the government on UNIP and a second state of emergency was declared, while Kaunda was accused of being an accessory. He was arrested in December but charges against him were dropped in July 1998 (Mtembu-Salter 2002, Columbia Encyclopedia 2005a). In February 1999 allegations of covert government support for UNITA were made and bombings of the Angolan embassy in Lusaka took place (Mtembu-Salter 2002).

The economic achievements of the Chiluba presidency were uneven. Efforts at attracting foreign donor funds were hampered by the failure to deal firmly with state corruption, the lengthy process of mining privatization (to which much donor aid was tied) and donor displeasure at the conduct of the 1996 elections (Holmes 2004). The modest foreign investment which began with Chiluba's economic reforms declined in the wake of the 1996 elections and only accelerated again after 1998 (Thurlow & Wobst 2004). Despite limited debt relief, fiscal austerity and wide ranging privatization, Zambia carried a huge debt burden at the end of the millennium, and the percentage of GDP spent on debt servicing doubled between 1990 and 1999. In 2000 Zambia was classified as a Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) and became eligible for a two-thirds reduction in debt if it implemented a poverty reduction strategy (Andreasson 2001, Holmes 2004, Thurlow & Wobst 2004).

Economic growth was uneven, alternating between years of modest growth followed by years of droughts or floods, and averaged only 0.2% for the 1990s. However, as the reforms undertaken began to work their way through the economy, a higher average of 3.4% was achieved between 1999-2002 (Lambert Undated, Thurlow & Wobst 2004). The result was a general rise in unemployment and poverty, though inequality declined in the same period (Thurlow & Wobst 2004). The economy remained heavily dependent on the copper industry although mining of other minerals, notably cobalt, but also lead, zinc, silver and gemstones made some advances. Increased manufacturing of refined oil, cement and chemicals pointed to limited diversification and the value of the tourist industry came to be recognized (Lambert Undated). In the late 1990s a new threat to the wellbeing of Zambians and economic development of Zambia emerged in the form of the AIDS plague; 10% of the population was infected with HIV or suffering from AIDS by 2000, according to estimates (Lambert Undated).

In the period of Chiluba's presidency a number of new political parties emerged as split-offs from the MMD, but the most significant of these proved to be the United Party for National Development (UPND) under Anderson Mazoka which was formed in 1998; through by-election victories it came to be the main opposition in parliament (Erdmann & Simutanyi 2003). In 2000 the suggestion was made within the MMD that the constitution should be amended to permit Chiluba to stand for a third term in the 2001 elections, unleashing a bitter and divisive debate within the party which led to the demotion or expulsion of members opposing an amendment. Outside the party civil society bodies including trade unions, churches and the Zambian Law Society rejected tampering with the two term limit. Further factions broke with the MMD and formed new parties, the most important of which was the Forum for Democracy Development (FDD) under Christon Tembo. In the end Chiluba bowed to pressure from within and without the MMD and Levy Mwanawasa, who had resigned the Vice-Presidency in 1993, was nominated as MMD candidate (Mtembu-Salter 2002, Erdmann & Simutanyi 2003).

References

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ERDMANN, G & SIMUTANYI, N 2003 "Transition in Zambia: The Hybridisation of the Third Republic", Institute of African Affairs, HAMBURG/BERLIN, [www] http://www.kas.de/db_files/dokumente/7_dokument_dok_pdf_4026_2.pdf [PDF document, opens new window] (accessed 9 Mar 2010).

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LODGE, T, KADIMA, D & POTTIE, D (eds) 2002 A Compendium of Elections in Southern Africa, EISA, 373-403.

MWANAWINA, I & MULUNGUSHI, J 2002 "Explaining African Economic Growth Performance: The Case Study for Zambia" (DRAFT), Global Development Network, [www] http://www.gdnet.org/pdf/draft_country_studies/Zambia-Mwanawina-RIR.pdf (offline 10 Mar 2010).

THURLOW, J & WOBST, P 2004 "The Road to Pro-Poor Growth in Zambia", International Food Policy Research Institute, [www] http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPGI/Resources/342674-1115051237044/ oppgzambia11.pdf [PDF document, opens new window] (accessed 10 Mar 2010).