Tanzania: Post 2005 elections developments

Extracted from: Grant Masterson 2009 "Chapter 13: Tanzania and Zanzibar" IN Denis Kadima and Susan Booysen (eds) Compendium of Elections in Southern Africa 1989-2009: 20 Years of Multiparty Democracy, EISA, Johannesburg, 560-562.

Kikwete's election as president of Tanzania in 2005, within the context of his rise to prominence, appears almost preordained. The grandson of Mrisho Kikwete, a former District Commissioner under the British, Kikwete was given tutelage by Julius Nyerere, Ali Hassan Mwinyi and Benjamin Mkapa, became the youngest finance minister in Tanzania at the age of 44 in 1994, and served in several ministerial positions before finally accepting the CCM [Chama cha Mapinduzi - Party of Revolution] party nomination to stand on the party's presidential ticket in 2005. His election victory margin was the highest in Tanzania's history, and his popularity has at times transcended party loyalties, with opposition MPs and party officials lauding his achievements along with the ruling party officials. His appeal within the East African Community has help cement the growing impetus at reviving the economic bloc and integrating the economies of Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya for the mutual benefit of all three states. Kikwete inherited a legacy from his predecessor of fiscal reforms and discipline which is starting to bear fruit for one of Africa's poorest nations, and his profile has been further enhanced by his efforts as statesman on the African continent, in particular in the negotiations with rebel groups in Burundi, Rwanda and the DRC, which he has often played a significant role in facilitating.

With such advances, it is tempting to assert that the current regime has consolidated and expanded on the successes of previous CCM administrations, and that the electoral model in Tanzania has proved a successful experiment (see references to the Nyalali Commission in this chapter). However, Kikwete's personal popularity, and the ever-increasing dominance of the CCM in Tanzania's political landscape, masks serious questions regarding the viability of the current state of electoral politics in the country, as well as the perennially emotive issue of Zanzibar's place in the Union. The CCM contested the 1995 elections with the massive advantages which all incumbent parties have enjoyed after extended periods of one-party rule, and subsequent elections suggest that, rather than making progress, opposition political parties continue to surrender ground to the ruling party in each subsequent election, despite the more favourable constituency-based model, which ought to enable opposition parties to establish enclaves of support in their core regions. However, as Figures 1 and 2 below indicate, the trend in Tanzania shows the collective weakening of support in Tanzania for opposition parties, entrenching a de facto if no longer a de jure one-party state. As a result, the CCM has been able to ignore critical issues such as the separation of the party from the state: if anything, the past three election results have counteracted such a separation, despite the Nyalali Commission's clear recommendation that this was critical to the establishment of a viable multiparty culture in Tanzania. The intra-party democracy of the CCM itself is also of paramount importance in light of the party's dominance of the political landscape.

Figure 1: Performance of opposition parties relative
to the CCM in presidential elections since 1995

Source

Compiled by the author from successive election results [see 1995, 2000 and 2005].

Figure 2: Performance of opposition parties relative
to the CCM in National Assembly elections since 1995

Source

Compiled by the author from successive election results [see 1995, 2000 and 2005].

The state and relative health of opposition parties themselves is also concerning. Very few of the opposition parties have clearly defined ideological stances, and few parties are even able to produce a party manifesto on demand during campaigns and election periods. Furthermore, the requirements for political party registration have excluded numerous applicants since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992, with analysts noting that between 1992 and 2001 43 parties applied for registration, but due to the legal requirements stipulated by the Electoral Act and the constitution, only 13 parties were successfully registered during this period, with an additional five parties attaining full registration prior to the 2005 elections (Shayo 2005). In the prevailing political climate in Tanzania, these largely academic observations of the systemic weakness of the system are disguised within the larger dominant party landscape. However, unless the current trends are reversed, opposition parties are able to improve their performances in the legislature and at the polls, and the CCM itself takes the painful steps towards the separation of party and state, as well as the internal reforms necessary to improve the party's internal democratic practices, the long-term sustainability of multiparty politics in Tanzania is far from guaranteed.

Zanzibar

See Zanzibar: Post 2005 elections developments.

Reference

SHAYO, R 2005 Parties and Political Development in Tanzania [PDF document], EISA Research Report No 24, Johannesburg: EISA.