Madagascar: Ravalomanana government (2002-2009)

Updated July 2010

Ravalomanana was now in control of the executive, and had replaced the provincial governors with special presidential delegates, but both the Senate and the National Assembly were in the hands of AREMA. To overcome this hurdle he scheduled legislative elections for December 2002 and began to effect legislative measures by presidential decree, which was accepted by the High Constitutional Court (Marcus 2004, US State Department 2005). In the legislative elections Ravalomanana's I love Madagascar Party won 102 seats, and his allies another 30, of 160 seats in a 68% poll turnout (see 2002 National Assembly election results for details). Local elections were held in November 2003 and TIM party won 66% of the vote placing them in a position to control the Senate. The country was divided into 22 regions to facilitate decentralisation, the heads of which report directly to the president (Marcus 2004, US State Department 2005).

Trials of Ratsiraka's Prime Minister Tantely Andrianarivo, and of Ratsiraka himself, led to accusation of witch hunts against Ravalomanana and brought into question both his commitment to reconciliation and the independence of the judiciary from executive interference (In August 2003 Ratsiraka was sentenced in abstentia to 10 years hard labour for embezzlement of state funds and in December Andrianarivo recieved 12 years for abuse of state office). In January 2004 the cabinet was reshuffled to bring leaders of other parties into the cabinet. Much of the support from other parties gained through inclusiveness and reconciliatory gestures was lost as a result of the economic reversals experienced in 2004 (Marcus 2004).

The six month standoff and the associated capital flight, violence, destruction of infrastructure and loss of trade income was devastating for the economy. Real GDP dropped by 12.7% in 2002 and IMF estimates put strike costs at US$14 million a day, claiming that the first ten days of unrest alone had wiped out all the gains made under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative. However in July 2002 Ravalomanana's Prime Minister, Jacques Sylla, was able to secure pledges from donors of $2.3 billion over four years to assist with economic recovery. As a consequence economic growth for 2003 was over 9% (Cornwell 2003, Marcus 2004, US State Department 2005).

Nevertheless it took two years for the economy to return to pre-conflict levels, while lost export markets, foreign investor confidence and tourism had not yet wholly recovered (Bertelsmann Foundation 2005). Ravalomanana's ambitious reform initiatives included measures to encourage foreign investment, anti-corruption measures, infrastructure development, privatisation of state firms, liberalization of the economy and floating of the exchange rate as well as strict fiscal and monetary discipline. These measures were coupled with the abolition of sales taxes to alleviate some of the social consequences of the reforms (Columbia Encyclopedia 2005, Marcus 2004, US State Department 2005).

The immediate outcome of the floating of the Malagasy franc was rapid and large depreciation of the currency, a 50 % fall against the euro in 2004. This resulted in a surge in the inflation rate to 15% in 2004, due to price rises in essential imports, with great hardship for Madagascans, especially the poor who were hardest hit. Economic growth was robust; 6.3% was posted in 2004 and 6% forecast for 2005 (US State Department 2005, Marcus 2004, OEDC 2004/2005, IRIN 2005). Ravalomanana's economic reforms won him the support of western donors in the form of aid and trade concessions; the European Union alone promised 430 million euros over five years to aid in reform, while the IMF contributed $117.1 million to poverty relief. In October 2004 Madagascar reached the completion point in the initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and became eligible for an 80% reduction on its debt, $836 million of which was due for 2005 (Marcus 2004, US State Department 2005, IMF 2005).

The struggle for macro-economic stability in Madagascar faced numerous constraints which provided very little room for the government to manoeuvre. These included extremely high levels of population growth, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and poor infrastructure; deforestation and environmental degradation; inherited problems of poor governance, patronage and graft; large current account deficits and a high inflation rate; rising oil prices and currency fluctuations; a complex and narrowly based tax system and lack of competition in markets. Meeting the high expectations created by the accession of the Ravalomanana government under these conditions was extremely difficult and the risk of social unrest remained high. The support of western donors and international financial institutions proved critical in the provision of short-term bridging finance to enable long-term structural economic reform and social upliftment (Bertelsmann Foundation 2005). The discovery of oil reserves off the coast of Madagascar, estimated at producing 60 000 barrels a day in three to four years, promised to provide Madagascar with some of the resources needed to tackle it's substantial developmental difficulties (REDI 2006).

The run up to the 2006 Presidential elections was fraught with conflict. In May 2006 the elections were moved forward from early 2007 to 3 December 2006 to avoid the cyclone season, a move that angered the opposition parties but which was endorsed by the High Constitutional Court (Wikipedia 2007). Exiled Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, deputy prime minister under Didier Ratsiraka and leader of Avant Garde de la Revolution Malgache (AREMA), attempted to return to Madagascar and stand for the presidency, but was barred from the country (Wikipedia 2007; Angus Reid Global Monitor 2007. See 2006 Presidential election candidate disqualifications for details). In mid-November Gen Fidy Andrianafidisoa, whose candidacy had been rejected for failing to make the required deposit, called for a military coup, which failed to materialise; he was arrested on 12 December (Wikipedia 2007; Angus Reid Global Monitor 2007). The election was won by Ravalomanana with 55% of the vote in a poll with a 61% voter turnout (see 2006 Presidential results). Jean Lahiniriko and Roland Ratsiraka, who came second and third respectively, announced that they would appeal to the Constitutional High Court to have the election annulled; however, the results were confirmed by the Court on the 23 December (Global Monitor 2007).

To further decentralisation, facilitate socio-economic development and remove power from the provinces, which had been sites of resistatnce to Ravalomanana during the 2001 crisis, Ravalomanana proposed that the country be divided into 22 developmental regions that would provide the middle tier of elected government; a referendum was held in April 2007 and these and other measures were overwhelmingly endorsed by the electorate (see 2007 Constitutional referendum results for details). In the National Assembly elections held in November 2007 Ravalomanana's I Love Madagascar (Tiako I Madagasikara) won 105 of the 127 seats (see 2007 National Assembly election results for details).

Ravalomana's success in the 2007 polls belied his declining popularity as his authoritarian style on the one hand, and his failure to accelorate economic growth and reduce poverty on the other alienated Malagasies, especially in hist own heartland in Antananarivo (see 2007 Post election instability for details). After tens of thousands of people took to the streets in massive protests that resulted in violent confrontations with government forces, Ravalomana was forced to stand down and hand over power to the military in March 2009 . The military immediately transferred power to Andry Rajoelina, former mayor of Antananarivo and leader of the protests that resulted in Ravalomanana''s resignation. The former was sworn in as transitional head of state until the holding of the next presidential election in the country.

References

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WIKIPEDIA 2007 "Malagasy presidential election, 2006" [www] [opens new window] (accessed 14 Jun 2010).

BERTELSMANN FOUNDATION AND THE CENTER FOR APPLIED POLICY RESEARCH 2005 "Madagascar", IN Shaping Change - Strategies of Development and Transformation [www] http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/79.0.html?L=1 [opens new window] (accessed 14 Jun 2010).

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MARCUS, RR 2004 "Political Change in Madagascar: Populist Democracy or Neopatrimonialism by another name?", Institute of Security Studies, Occasional Paper 89, [www] http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/papers/89/Paper89.htm [opens new window] (accessed 14 Jun 2010).

OEDC 2004/2005 "African Economic Outlook 2004/2005: Country Highlights", Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, [www] http://www.oecd.org/document/14/0,2340,en_2649_15162846_34861902_1_1_1_1,00.html [opens new window] (accessed 14 Jun 2010).

REDI 2006, "13 candidates to challenge Ravalomanana in Madagascar polls", October, [www] http://www.sardc.net/Editorial/Newsfeature/06931006.htm [opens new window] (accessed 14 Jun 2010).

US STATE DEPARTMENT 2005 "Background Note: Madagascar" [www] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5460.htm [opens new window] (accessed 14 Jun 2010).