Madagascar: Zafy and Ratsiraka governments (1992-2002) (continued)

The country's first municipal elections were held in late 1999. Amid poor voter and civic education, the turnout was only 10%, with AREMA taking 95% of the seats. Ratsiraka further consolidated his control over the provinces by implementing an indirect system for electing provincial heads in August 2000. AREMA won 60% of the vote in provincial elections in December 2000 and the governorships of the six provinces in June 2001. An AREMA majority in the newly reconstituted Senate (49 of the 60 elected seats and a further 30 appointed by the president) was also established. He further appointed loyalists to the High Constitutional Court (Marcus 2004, Cornwell 2003).

Due to the expertise of his technocratic ministers, the Ratsiraka government was able to post impressive growth rates averaging at about 5% per year from 1999 onwards. Madagascar successfully received debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative in early 2002. These gains did not reflect themselves in a decline in social misery and 70% of the population still lived in poverty (US State Department 2005, Cornwell 2003). The nepotism and cronyism that went hand in hand with growth explains this in part, for friends, supporters and family were the primary beneficiaries. Ratsiraka thus used state patronage and presidential influence to create a network of powerful allies (Marcus 2004).

The 2001 elections found Ratsiraka unexpectedly pitted against Marc Ravalomanana, the charismatic and successful mayor of Antananarivo. Moreover, despite his Merina ethnic background, as a self-made businessman, he appealed to the peoples of the coast as well as to the Merinas of the plateau. Faced with the unexpected prospect of defeat Ratsiraka issued a series of electoral decrees aimed at narrowing the chances of non-incumbent candidates and threatened voters with dire consequences should he lose (Marcus 2004, Cornwell 2003). The National Electoral Council (CNE) results for the election on December 18 gave Ravalomanana 46% of the vote to Ratsiraka's 41% and announced that a runoff would be necessary (see 2001 Presidential results). Parallel counting, before Ratsiraka stopped it, pointed to an outright victory for Ravalomanana; counting fraud was widely suspected (Thomson Corporation 2005, Marcus 2004). Ravalomanana, backed by popular demonstrations in the capital, rejected the results and the need for a runoff and declared himself president-elect (Columbia Encyclopedia 2005, US State Department 2005, Marcus 2004).

The High Constitutional Court, on January 8, 2002, ordered a recount by the CNE behind closed doors; the recount differed little from the previous figures (Marcus 2004, Cornwell 2003). Ravalomanana rejected these findings and the popular demonstrations in his favour spread to other cities, growing in size and fervour. Ravalomanana called a general strike of indefinite duration on February 4. Ratsiraka supporters responded by blockading the capital. International mediation could not bridge the gap, and matters came to a head when Ravalomanana declared himself president. Ratsiraka declared a state of emergency on February 28, 2002 and ordered the military to besiege Antanariva and starve it of food and fuel. To placate international concern Ravalomanana offered to test his election with a referendum, but in the meanwhile formed a cabinet that was able to take occupancy of state offices under popular guard while the military stood back (Marcus 2004, Cornwell 2003, Thomson Corporation 2005).

In response the governors of five of the six provinces declared themselves autonomous and the blockade was intensified. With the military divided, civil war became a real prospect as conflict escalated and positions on both sides hardened. A recount in April 2002, ordered by the Supreme Court, and organised by the Organization of African Unity, indicated that Ravalomanana was indeed the winner, but this was rejected by Ratsiraka (see 2001 Presidential results). Ravalomanana had himself sworn in again on May 6. On June 7, 2002 control of the military finally passed into Ravalomanana's hands and the recapture of the secessionist provinces progressed steadily. Discredited in the eyes of friend and foe alike, and faced with the prospect of military defeat, Ratsiraka fled Madagascar on July 5, 2002 (Cornwell 2003, Thomson Corporation 2005, Marcus 2004, Columbia Encyclopedia 2005).

References

COLUMBIA ENCYCLOPEDIA 2005 "Madagascar", Sixth edition, [www] http://www.bartleby.com/65/ma/Madagasc.html [opens new window] (accessed 23 Oct 2007).

CORNWELL, R 2003 "Madagascar: Stumbling at the first hurdle?" ISS Occasional Paper 68, April [www] http://www.iss.co.za/Pubs/Papers/68/Paper68.html [opens new window] (accessed 23 Oct 2007).

MARCUS, RR 2004 "Political Change in Madagascar: Populist Democracy or Neopatrimonialism by another name?", Institute of Security Studies, Occasional Paper 89, [www] http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/papers/89/Paper89.htm [opens new window] (accessed 23 Oct 2007).

THOMSON CORPORATION 2005 "Madagascar: History" IN Encyclopedia of the Nations, [www] http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Africa/Madagascar-HISTORY.html [opens new window] (accessed 23 Oct 2007).

US STATE DEPARTMENT 2005 "Background Note: Madagascar" [www] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5460.htm [opens new window] (accessed 23 Oct 2007).