Madagascar: Post 2007 National Assembly election instability

Updated June 2010

Extracted from: Lucien Toulou 2009 "Chapter 6: Madagascar" IN Denis Kadima and Susan Booysen (eds) Compendium of Elections in Southern Africa 1989-2009: 20 Years of Multiparty Democracy, EISA, Johannesburg, 219.

Resounding as it may have been, the ruling TIM's victory after the September 2007 National Assembly elections revealed the fragility of Marc Ravalomanana's government and its vulnerability to growing popular discontent. At first, it was unsure whether the dominance of the new coalition contributed to the uncertainty of election outcomes, one of the cornerstones of electoral democracy, or not. Then, it became clear that the legitimacy of the government was tainted. The credibility of the elections that allowed TIM to retain power in 2006 and 2007 was opened to question, as the issue of limited independence and subjection to the ruling party of electoral authorities was raised. Besides, the overwhelming dominance of the ruling party on the political arena resulted in the opposition being removed from all major institutions in the country. This further disempowered the weak checks and balances that existed before in the country. By the same token, the sidelining of all veteran opposition and leaders provided an open space that Andry Rajoelina, the 34-year-old mayor of Antananarivo, would soon use to become the major political rival of the president.

Political tumult started in the island when the government closed a radio station owned by the Antananarivo mayor after it aired statements from former president Didier Ratsiraka, who lived in exile in France. Andry Rajoelina convened public demonstrations claiming that his station was closed as part of a politically motivated campaign against him by the president. He not only demanded reopening of the station, but also accused the president of authoritarian and corrupt practices. What started as a conflict between the mayor and the president turned into heightened tensions between government and opposition supporters. President Ravalomanana removed Rajoelina from office on the 3 February 2009 following announcement of a parallel government by the latter in a move to take over power. Rather than curbing protests, the president's vigorous reaction led to more protests, resulting in many demonstrators killed or wounded, the forced resignation of the defence minister, who had been in office for only one month, and the ousting of the army chief of staff.<.p>

Eventually, Marc Ravalomanana was forced to hand over power to the military, which decided to transfer all presidential authority to Rajoelina, paving the way to his inauguration as Malagasy transitional head of state. The latest political crisis in Madagascar was just another round in the wave of instability and jostling for power that the country has been experiencing since independence in 1960. There is still no certainty as to whether the crisis is the last of its kind and on the extent to which stakeholders will use the crisis to embark on pressing for long-awaited post-election and constitutional reforms to prevent further violence in the future.