A brief analysis of recent events in Kenya

Lucien Toulou

The 2007 General Elections offer a very contradictory picture of democracy in Kenya. Unlike many other African countries where voter apathy has become an issue, this election saw voters turning out in high numbers to choose their leaders on the polling day. At first, this demonstration of participatory democracy provided a pleasing impression to observers. The long queues of voters seemed to have resulted from a desire to take part in hotly contested elections and the realisation by Kenyans that each vote determines the future of their country. The most intriguing question then is: How did such an apparently exemplary electoral experience turn into a political fiasco?

The wave of post-election violence and instability experienced in various towns involved a large number of the electorate who had voted peacefully on 27 December 2007. The enormity and the scale of the violence make a strong contrast with the strong civic virtue that drove them to polling stations on Election Day. The post election violence also calls into question the professionalism and independence of the highly regarded Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), tarnishing an electoral process that started out so well.

The December 2007 General Elections woes really began when vote tallying raised critical issues around the overall conduct of the electoral process and stirred controversy over the results. The electoral process includes the pre election, election and post election phases. Moving forward from one step does not imply success in the following. It does not guarantee an ending marked by fair process, either. Although incidents of violence and intimidation were reported during the pre election phase, the main political contenders abided by the Peace Charter they signed, ensuring a general atmosphere of calm across the country amidst allegations of rigging, inconsistencies and anomalies observed in various polling stations. It is equally important for election officials to ensure that people vote freely as it is for them to make certain that the results they declare fully reflect the choice of the electorate.

The official results from the ECK came as a surprise for many as they provided a conflicting narrative of voting behavior in Kenya: paradoxically, Kenyans decided to re elect Mwai Kibaki as Head of State while manifesting an irrefutable desire for change in the parliamentary poll. There, they overwhelmingly rejected at least 20 members of Kibaki's cabinet including the Vice President. In addition, they significantly deprived Kibaki of the parliamentary majority he needs to govern the country by giving his Party of National Unity (PNU) only 37 seats against about 100 for Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The unusual delay in announcing the presidential results by the ECK cast the validity of the results into further doubt, as did the admission by the ECK that irregularities had caused it. The ECK itself added to the confusion. It declared Kibaki the winner with its chairman acknowledging the 'cooking' and 'witch doctoring' of results in some constituencies. He also confessed to the media his personal embarrassment over the reelection while five commissioners called for an investigation.

The gap between Odinga's early lead and the eventual announcement of Kibaki as winner was also striking. The opposition candidate's victory was predicted by pre election and exit polls. Most of the results released by the local media after the counting of ballots at polling stations also suggested that the victory of the opposition candidate was assured. Predictably, his supporters did not accept a different outcome despite calls to remain patient and calm.

The current impasse occurred precisely because the 2007 General Elections were the most closely contested elections in Kenya's history. Therefore, the reaction of Kenyans - shocking and condemnable as it may be - is understandable. Kenya's citizens turned out in large numbers to act upon their faith in electoral democracy. Kenya is in a crisis because the very institutions and leaders that should have protected its citizens let them down.

Dr Lucien Toulou is a Researcher at EISA Johannesburg. He observed the elections in Kenya in December 2007 as part of a team of technical experts from EISA who provided technical support to the Pan African Parliament Observer Mission.